Iran's attempts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz have intensified following attacks on three tankers, which analysts from Windward describe as the most significant escalation since early March. The U.S. has bolstered military support for a southern shipping corridor along Oman's coast, allowing significant oil exports to bypass Iranian control. U.S.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized that Iran's leverage over the strait is diminishing, with military escorts facilitating the exit of 5 to 8 million barrels per day. Despite an interim deal promising safe passage for commercial ships, Iran has insisted that safe transit is contingent on using a northern route through its waters.
This has led to a targeted campaign by Iran to destabilize the southern corridor, as noted by maritime analysts. has reinstated sanctions on Iran, and President Trump has threatened to reimpose a naval blockade, which could further elevate oil prices, currently around $71 per barrel for U.S. crude and just under $76 for Brent.
If the blockade is enacted, it could remove 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports from the market, likely driving prices higher.
However, experts believe Iran's long-term control over the strait is unsustainable, as it risks pushing Gulf producers to seek alternative routes, thereby diminishing Iran's trade space and creating broader geopolitical implications for other critical maritime chokepoints