According to analysts at Kpler, the anticipated U.S.-Iran deal, set to be signed in Switzerland, could lead to an increase in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to about 40 vessels per day, compared to 100 daily transits before the conflict escalated. This increase is expected as approximately 118 tankers currently stuck in the Persian Gulf are poised to exit within 15 days.
However, this surge is viewed as a temporary spike rather than a sustainable increase in traffic. The analysts emphasize that the critical factor will be how many new vessels will enter the Gulf after the backlog is cleared. Matt Wright, Kpler's lead freight analyst, noted that tankers could reach 12 per day in the first month post-deal, contingent on the security situation.
While some shipping companies, like Frontline, anticipate a quick resumption of operations, concerns remain regarding differing interpretations of the deal between the U.S. and Iran, particularly regarding tolls for transit. Additionally, the threat of mines in the strait poses a significant risk, with industry experts warning that the security situation remains volatile.
Jakob Larsen from Bimco highlighted the ongoing risks and advised caution for vessels considering transit through the area