In August, job growth exceeded expectations, but wage growth has not kept pace with inflation, prompting economists to explore the potential effects of AI on worker compensation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.4% year-over-year decline in inflation-adjusted wages through June, with labor's share of nonfarm business income at its lowest since 1947.
Researchers, including those from Apollo Global Management, found that workers in AI-exposed jobs experienced slower real-wage growth compared to those in less-exposed roles, suggesting that companies may be benefiting from productivity gains through wage compression.
However, experts caution that the data is limited and that recent job losses in higher-paying sectors like tech may be due to post-pandemic normalization rather than solely AI effects. Daron Acemoglu from MIT noted that while there is no strong evidence of wage impacts yet, the potential for AI to affect wages significantly exists as its applications become more widespread.
The article emphasizes the complexity of the relationship between AI exposure and job outcomes, with some occupations experiencing wage gains despite employment declines, challenging conventional narratives about automation's effects on labor markets