Recent data indicates that vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped to a five-day average of around 13 ships, marking a near three-month low. This decline is attributed to increasing doubts regarding a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran to fully reopen this vital oil corridor. Prior to the conflict, the average daily traffic was approximately 130 ships.
Despite the reduced traffic, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that oil exports through the strait have averaged nearly 9 million barrels per day, aided by U.S. military support. Total oil exports from Gulf states, including pipeline shipments, are around 15 million barrels per day, down from 20 million barrels per day before the conflict escalated.
The situation remains tense, as Iran's national security official Mohsen Rezaei stated that the strait will not fully reopen until the U.S. meets Tehran's demands. Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a deal could be imminent, the lack of a concrete agreement has led to volatility in oil markets, evidenced by a sell-off following his comments.
The interim deal signed on June 17 briefly increased traffic to about 60 ships but ultimately collapsed due to disputes over shipping routes, leading to further military actions between the U.S. and Iran. As of now, traffic remains about 80% below the peak observed after the interim agreement