Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February, China has reduced its crude oil imports while relying on its substantial stockpiles, which has helped prevent a more severe energy crisis.
Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, noted that China's actions effectively averted a 'doomsday scenario' that could have resulted from a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. As of December 2025, China is estimated to hold 1.4 billion barrels of strategic crude oil inventories, significantly more than the U.S.'s 825 million barrels.
However, recent data indicates a rebound in China's crude imports, which rose 22% and 6.2% month-on-month in July and August, respectively, although they remain below last year's levels. If China resumes its pre-war import levels, the upward pressure on global oil prices could intensify, impacting economic growth forecasts.
Analysts, including Krishna Srinivasan from the IMF, warn that elevated oil prices could have a deeper drag on global growth than currently anticipated. China's proactive measures, including stockpiling and a shift towards cleaner energy, have positioned its economy to withstand these shocks, with coal still providing a significant portion of its energy needs.
Dan Wang from Eurasia Group highlighted that China's model, while not efficient in a stable economy, has proven effective in navigating this crisis. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven cautioned that oil prices could still escalate to $120 a barrel as the conflict continues to disrupt shipping