Iran has intensified its assaults on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with nearly 20 attacks reported in the past month, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center. This escalation threatens the fragile rebound of crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, which have been fluctuating due to the ongoing conflict.
In the third quarter, Iran attacked approximately two ships for every 100 that crossed the strait. The U.S. military's commitment to protect tankers along a southern route has become crucial, but analysts warn that this arrangement is financially unsustainable.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, noted that the current method of transporting oil, which involves transferring crude from tankers in Hormuz to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman, is inefficient and costly. Despite some recovery in oil shipments, averaging around 10.3 million barrels per day recently, this figure remains about 23% below prewar levels.
The high costs associated with shipping, including increased freight and insurance rates, have surged to $1 million per day per tanker, reflecting the elevated maritime risks. Brent oil prices remain near $100 per barrel, indicating that the market does not view the current shipping conditions as sustainable.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard continues to assert control over the strait, further complicating the security situation. Richard Meade, editor in chief of Lloyd's List, emphasized that while oil flows have improved, the overall security of navigation in the region has not, leading to a more complex and costly operational environment for shippers