Goldman Sachs reports that U.S. IPO volumes are on track to surpass $200 billion in 2026, which would set a new record. Despite concerns about a market bubble, Goldman characterizes the current activity as a normalization of IPOs, with around 60 listings this year, close to the 25-year median of 100 deals annually.
This is significantly lower than the nearly 400 IPOs during the 1999 dot-com peak and over 250 in 2021. Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, suggests that the current IPO activity is driven by a few large deals rather than a broad-based boom.
Conversely, Owen Lamont from Acadian Asset Management warns that the surge in equity issuance could indicate a market bubble, advising investors to be cautious and patient. Concerns about whether the market can absorb new supply are also present, particularly as post-IPO lockup periods will expire in 2027.
However, Jay Ritter from the University of Florida believes these concerns are overstated, noting that U.S. public companies return approximately $1.6 trillion to investors each year, which provides ample liquidity for new listings. In contrast, European IPO activity remains subdued, with companies raising over 200 billion euros but experiencing slightly negative net equity issuance.
Goldman strategists Peter Oppenheimer and Guillaume Jaisson emphasize that the issue in Europe is not oversupply but rather a lack of domestic equity inflows, resulting in only about 40 IPOs over the past year.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong's IPO market has rebounded significantly, with projections indicating total equity supply could reach $110 billion this year, driven by favorable policies and increased dual listings from Chinese firms.
Si Fu from Goldman attributes this resurgence to policy easing and improved listing rules, with new listings in Hong Kong generating an average return of 60% in their first three months. Goldman anticipates annual demand exceeding $400 billion, fueled by corporate buybacks and capital flows