Morgan Stanley's analyst Jack Lu forecasts that sodium-ion batteries will grow from a mere 2% market share in 2024 to 20% by 2030 and 37% by 2035, characterizing this shift as the 'New Oil Age.' The appeal of sodium-ion batteries lies in their affordability—30% to 40% cheaper than lithium iron phosphate batteries—and superior performance in cold weather.
Lu estimates that the sodium-ion battery market could expand to 830 gigawatt hours by 2030 and reach 2.4 terawatt hours by 2035, necessitating around $800 billion in investments. This growth is expected to disrupt existing energy markets and enhance energy security, particularly in an AI-driven economy.
Analyst Andrew Percoco notes that sodium's abundance and low cost in the U.S. could facilitate domestic production, with General Motors already establishing a foothold through its partnership with Peak Energy for next-generation sodium-ion batteries. GM plans to deploy these batteries for grid-scale energy storage after 2028 and may also utilize the technology in defense and mobility sectors.
Despite a nearly 4% decline in GM's shares this year, analysts maintain a positive outlook, projecting a potential 20% rebound