The Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen after a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, but Barclays warns that the effects on oil supply will linger longer than market prices currently reflect. Analyst Amarpreet Singh emphasized that while the blockade may soon be lifted, restoring normal trade flows could take weeks due to logistical challenges and the potential for renewed conflicts.
Barclays holds its 2026 Brent oil price forecast at $100 per barrel, even as prices dip below $80 for the first time since March. In contrast, Citi analysts believe that trade flows will normalize faster than expected, projecting a return to prewar levels by mid-to-late July and adjusting their Brent forecasts downward to $75 for the third quarter and $70 for the fourth quarter.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also revised their fourth-quarter estimates to $80 per barrel, anticipating that tanker flows will take several weeks to fully restore. Despite the anticipated reopening, analysts note signs of weakness in the oil market, including an increase in unsold cargoes