Goldman Sachs has adjusted its Brent crude price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 from $90 to $80 per barrel, and for 2027 from $80 to $75. The bank's U.S. WTI estimates have also been lowered to $75 for Q4 2026 and $70 for 2027.
This change comes after President Donald Trump and Iran's lead negotiator signed an agreement to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil trade. The deal has raised expectations for a recovery in oil exports from the region, with Goldman projecting that Persian Gulf exports could normalize by the end of July, with full recovery expected by October.
However, the bank cautions that geopolitical risks remain, as hostilities could resume, and logistical challenges like mine-clearing could delay shipping lane reopenings. Goldman estimates that a full recovery could require a 12 million barrels-per-day increase in flows from Hormuz, returning to about 70% of pre-war levels.
Despite a projected global supply surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day in 2027, Goldman believes Brent prices will stabilize around $75 due to ongoing geopolitical risks and the likelihood that inventories will not fully rebuild. The full details of the agreement are yet to be disclosed, with a signing ceremony planned for Friday in Geneva.
If disruptions continue, Brent prices could surge above $130 by late 2026, while a more favorable scenario could see prices drop below $70 in Q4 2026 and below $60 in 2027