President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire with Iran is 'over' after U.S. strikes in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation has led traders on Kalshi to reassess their predictions regarding maritime traffic in the strait, which is crucial for global oil supply.
Currently, there is only a 44% chance that traffic will normalize by December 1, with the earliest anticipated return to normalcy pushed to January 1, 2027, where the odds rise to 53%. This marks a significant decline from earlier predictions made on July 4, when traders estimated over 50% odds for normalization by October 1.
Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket are slightly more optimistic, estimating a 59% chance for normal traffic by December 31. Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart highlighted that the situation in the Strait has deteriorated, indicating that global oil supply is now critically impacted and that commercial insurers are unlikely to lower 'war risk' assessments in the near future