According to Goldman Sachs, oil exports from the Gulf have rebounded significantly, with current estimates showing 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, although this remains 7 million to 8 million barrels below pre-war levels. The increase of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day from the lowest point in March highlights the resilience of Gulf oil producers amidst the conflict.
However, the accuracy of these figures is complicated by limited and delayed information on tanker traffic due to the war, with many tankers reportedly operating with their transponders turned off to avoid detection. This has led to a situation where oil volumes are often revised upward once tankers reactivate their tracking devices.
Goldman analysts suggest that actual oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz may align with previous estimates from the Trump administration, which projected between 8 million to 10 million barrels per day.
Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman, noted that the increase in covert shipping practices indicates that producers are adapting to the ongoing conflict, and the shipping markets are now pricing in potential disruptions that could last into 2027