Since mid-June, SpaceX has seen a nearly 50% drop in its market value, while Tesla's shares have decreased by 18% following its latest earnings report. The upcoming earnings report for SpaceX, scheduled for Tuesday, is anticipated to create substantial market movement, with options pricing suggesting a potential 15% swing in the stock.
This volatility is compounded by the early lockup period for insiders, which allows them to sell shares two days after the earnings announcement, potentially flooding the market with over 900 million shares, or 20% of the eligible locked-up stock. Traders are currently facing a dilemma: whether the risk from the earnings report or the lockup period poses a greater threat to the stock's stability.
Notably, the implied volatility for SpaceX options is significantly higher than that of Tesla, indicating heightened uncertainty. Despite the recent downturn, traders remain optimistic about SpaceX, as evidenced by a higher volume of call options compared to puts, although larger traders are adopting a more cautious stance.
The most actively traded options include 330-strike calls expiring next Friday, reflecting a bullish sentiment among smaller traders