The projected Social Security COLA for 2027 is estimated to be between 3.5% and 3.6%, according to various analysts, including Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy expert. This increase follows a 2.8% boost in 2026 for approximately 75 million beneficiaries.
The Senior Citizens League has revised its estimate down from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the AARP has increased its forecast from 3.5% to 3.6%. The average monthly benefit could rise by about $67.90 or $75, depending on the final COLA percentage.
The COLA is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which has shown a 3.5% increase over the past year. The final determination will be made in October, incorporating one more month of inflation data, which is crucial as fluctuations in oil prices can significantly influence inflation rates.
Over the past decade, COLA adjustments have varied widely, with an average increase of about 3.1% and a peak of 8.7% in 2023 due to rising inflation pressures