According to a study by KFF, enrollment in the ACA marketplace is projected to decrease from 22.3 million in 2025 to about 17.5 million in 2026, marking a 21.5% decline. This drop is attributed to the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies that had previously helped lower costs for many enrollees.
As a result, average ACA premiums are expected to rise by 114%, with the average monthly premium increasing from $113 to $178. The study notes that while the increase was less severe than initially anticipated due to some households switching to lower-cost plans, many enrollees are likely to drop their insurance altogether due to affordability issues.
The report also highlights that the average deductible for ACA plans has surged by 37%, reaching $3,786, the highest increase recorded. The decline in enrollment and rising costs could pose challenges for Republicans in the midterm elections, as healthcare affordability remains a critical concern for voters.
The full impact of these changes may not be fully understood until more detailed federal data is released later this year