The June jobs report is projected to show a gain of 115,000 nonfarm payrolls, a decrease from May's 172,000 growth. However, Goldman Sachs highlights that the World Cup has likely contributed approximately 40,000 jobs to this figure, based on data from Homebase, a payroll firm.
While overall hiring appears to be slowing, cities hosting the World Cup experienced a smaller decline in employment compared to other areas. Specifically, hospitality hiring surged by 9.5%, indicating a significant World Cup-related boost.
Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels noted that historical data supports the idea that the World Cup can enhance payroll growth, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and trade sectors. They project total nonfarm payroll growth for June to reach 140,000, which, while still below the previous month, is a notable improvement compared to the job losses seen in June 2025.
Additionally, Goldman pointed out that prior June payroll estimates have often been revised upward, suggesting that the final count could be even higher