The recent passage of a sanctions bill by the U.S. House grants President Trump the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries purchasing oil from Russia, directly targeting major buyers such as China and India. This legislative move follows the BRICS Summit, where leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, criticized unilateral sanctions without explicitly naming the U.S.
Experts, including Deborah Elms from the Hinrich Foundation, suggest that the top five purchasers of Russian energy are now 'extremely worried' about the potential implications of these tariffs.
China and India have significantly increased their imports of discounted Russian crude since the onset of the Ukraine war, with China accounting for half of Russia's crude exports and India for 37% as of late August. Analysts believe that while tariffs could provide the U.S. with leverage, both China and India are unlikely to reduce their Russian oil purchases due to energy security concerns.
The situation is further complicated by India's ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. and its reliance on Russian oil, which constituted over 50% of its crude imports in mid-2023. India's foreign ministry has expressed its commitment to energy security, indicating a potential backlash against U.S. pressure.
The bill's passage could hinder India's trade deal with the U.S., as the country navigates the complexities of its energy needs and geopolitical relationships. The potential for retaliatory measures from China and the political implications for India underscore the delicate balance the U.S. must maintain in its foreign policy regarding energy imports and sanctions