As Russia prepares for its first parliamentary election since the invasion of Ukraine, the ruling United Russia party is expected to maintain its dominance in the State Duma. However, the elections come at a time of significant public discontent, with the party's approval ratings at a four-year low due to a nationwide fuel crisis and ongoing military challenges.
Analysts note that while United Russia currently holds 310 seats, it needs to secure at least 300 seats to maintain its supermajority, which is critical for implementing constitutional changes without needing support from other parties.
The Kremlin's recent actions, including the dismissal of Andrei Klepach from VEB after he warned of a potential social crisis, indicate rising tensions within the government regarding the war's economic toll. Furthermore, speculation about a new wave of military mobilization post-election adds to the uncertainty, as such measures are unpopular among the Russian populace.
The situation is further complicated by Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian logistics, which aim to increase the war's costs for Russia. Despite a temporary boost in oil prices benefiting the Kremlin financially, experts caution that this will not significantly alleviate the budgetary pressures caused by high military expenditures.
Investors should keep an eye on the election outcomes and subsequent developments on the battlefield, as these factors could influence Russia's political landscape and economic stability in the near future