The Nasdaq-100 has experienced an impressive 18% increase in 2026, largely driven by a surge of over 33% from late March to early June, following the U.S. stock market's lows due to geopolitical tensions. However, current trading on Kalshi indicates that speculators believe the index's upward trajectory may be stalling, with only a 27% chance of surpassing 33,000 by year-end.
UBS's report suggests that while the overall market rally is expected to continue, technology may not lead this growth, potentially impacting the Nasdaq-100, which recently added SpaceX to its roster.
UBS's chief investment officer, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, noted that investors are starting to diversify their focus beyond tech stocks as they reassess the future of the AI trade, hinting at a shift in market leadership that could affect the index's performance moving forward