Industry experts have warned that it will take weeks to clear the backlog of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the recent agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to reopen the waterway. Oil prices initially fell below $80 per barrel as traders anticipated a restoration of supply after months of disruption due to the conflict.
However, the actual resumption of shipping traffic is complicated by unresolved logistical and security issues. Adam Sharpe from Lloyd's List Intelligence noted that a phased restart is likely, with significant questions remaining about permissions, service charges, and safety measures.
Kpler estimates that 118 tankers are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, and while the backlog may clear in 10 to 15 days, a full recovery of shipping volumes could take longer.
Goldman Sachs has adjusted its oil price forecasts downward, reflecting the anticipated supply recovery, but warns that prices may remain volatile as the market adjusts to the reopening and the complexities involved in ensuring safe transit. Overall, the situation highlights the fragility of oil supply chains and the potential for ongoing price pressures as the market navigates these challenges