Since the Iran war began on February 28, the situation has become increasingly complicated, especially regarding ceasefire negotiations. A memorandum of understanding initiated a 60-day negotiation period focused on critical issues like the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear programs, but tensions escalated quickly due to Iranian attacks on shipping.
The U.S. responded with consecutive strikes, and Iran has launched attacks on U.S. assets in Kuwait and Bahrain. The intricate power dynamics within Iran, particularly the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), complicate any potential ceasefire.
The IRGC operates independently of the civilian government, which is led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, and has significant control over military decisions. Analysts like Sanam Vakil from Chatham House emphasize that while the civilian government seeks economic relief from sanctions, the IRGC may prefer to maintain pressure in the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.
This week, hostilities resumed after U.S. strikes on Iran-backed militias, demonstrating how quickly the conflict can escalate. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but experts like Amos Hochstein and Alex Vatanka suggest that Iran is unlikely to revert to pre-war conditions and may seek to leverage battlefield realities for political gains before agreeing to any ceasefire