SpaceX has entered the public market with a valuation of $2.6 trillion, positioning it closely behind Amazon as the fifth-largest company globally. However, analysts indicate that advancing to third place, currently held by Apple and Alphabet, both valued over $4.4 trillion, will be a challenging endeavor.
To surpass these companies, SpaceX would need to increase its market cap by approximately 70% to reach $340 per share. The options market currently reflects a 50% probability of this occurring by July 2028, with a slightly lower estimate of 46% based on June 2028 call options.
For those bullish on SpaceX potentially becoming the most valuable company, the odds are even slimmer, with only a 38% chance of overtaking Nvidia, valued at $5 trillion, by June 2028. This analysis underscores the complexities and uncertainties involved in SpaceX's future growth trajectory in the competitive landscape of major tech companies