Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan expressed strong confidence in remibrutinib, suggesting it could become one of the company's largest medicines ever, with a projected peak sales potential exceeding $4 billion. However, Barclays recently revised its sales forecast downward after late-stage trial results showed the drug's effectiveness in reducing relapses was below expectations.
This development is significant as Novartis prepares to present its long-term growth strategy in mid-November, particularly in light of the impending patent expirations for major drugs like Kisqali and Kesimpta, which could impact $18 billion in peak sales.
Analysts, including Morningstar's Jay Lee, noted that while the $4 billion sales forecast for remibrutinib is feasible, it remains uncertain and hinges on various factors, including its performance relative to Roche's fenebrutinib and the success of ongoing clinical trials.
The drug's unique mechanism as a BTK inhibitor may offer safety advantages, but its comparative efficacy against existing treatments like Kesimpta is still under scrutiny. Additionally, remibrutinib's potential in treating progressive MS could open new market opportunities, with ongoing trials expected to yield results by 2031.
Novartis is also exploring remibrutinib's use in chronic hives and hidradenitis suppurativa, with the latter showing a $2 billion peak sales potential, albeit with a lower probability of success due to previous trial challenges