Iran has expressed a belief that it can return the Strait of Hormuz to its prewar traffic levels within one month following a peace agreement with the U.S. However, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are more cautious, estimating only a 38% likelihood that normal traffic flows will resume by July 1.
This estimate is based on the seven-day moving average of transit through the strait, which is defined as crossing 60, according to IMF PortWatch data. Notably, this figure is an improvement from the 32% chance traders assigned prior to recent reports.
Iranian state television reported that a draft framework for a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. exists, although the White House has denied any such framework. Traders show slightly more optimism for a return to normalcy by August 1, raising their odds to 60%, up from a previous 50-50 chance.
However, these figures are lower than the expectations traders had over the weekend, when the odds of a July normalization were as high as 50% amid speculation of an imminent deal. The fluctuating odds reflect the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran relations and the potential impact on global oil supply routes