The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised its global growth outlook downward, projecting a slowdown from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, with a potential recovery to 3.1% in 2027, contingent on a swift resolution to the U.S.-Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Chief economist Stefano Scarpetta emphasized that a prolonged conflict could lead to a more severe scenario, with growth plummeting to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, risking recession for some economies.
The report highlights the surge in energy prices and increased costs for essential goods due to the conflict, warning that inflation could rise by 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and 1.3 points in 2027. Scarpetta noted that unemployment would likely increase and investment, particularly in energy-intensive sectors, would weaken, exacerbating financial market instability.
The OECD also pointed out the disproportionate impact on developing economies, which face greater vulnerabilities due to limited energy resources and weaker economic structures. The report calls for urgent measures to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce dependency on fossil fuels, stressing the importance of international cooperation to mitigate the economic fallout from the ongoing crisis