It's time for Moderna shareholders to bail on the stock, according to Citi. Analyst Geoff Meacham downgraded the biotech name to sell. He raised his price target to $80 from $60, though that implies 60% downside from Tuesday's close.
Moderna has been on a tear since Aug. 19, when the company announced positive late-stage trial results for an experimental personalized cancer vaccine known as intismeran autogene. The drug, combined with Merck's Keytruda, met goals in more than 1,100 patients with higher-risk or advanced melanoma. Moderna shares have rallied 223% since the trial results were released.
MRNA mountain 2026-08-19 MRNA since Aug. 19 However, Meacham thinks the stock is now trading at unsustainable levels. "We struggle to justify the valuation through public-company comparisons or pipeline [net present value]," he wrote to clients. "Moderna's ~$80B market cap approximates Regeneron's despite materially lower expected revenue and earnings.
On NPV, assigning 100% [probability of success] to intismeran's lead oncology programs supports only ~$100/sh, or 50% below current levels. Reaching ~$200/sh requires ~$26B in annual oncology sales ($13B to Moderna), nearly 7x our model." "Melanoma is highly responsive to checkpoint inhibition, making it a favorable setting for providing proof-of-concept.
Renal, lung, and bladder cancer could create value, but each presents distinct tumor biology," Meacham added. "Overall, we believe that based on aggressive implied sales and unrealistic PoS assumptions, the current valuation is unjustifiable with a negatively skewed risk/reward profile." Moderna shares closed at $203.46 on Tuesday. They fell nearly 6% in premarket trading Wednesday.
The company did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment. Most analysts are on the sidelines when it comes to Moderna. LSEG data shows that 15 of 24 rate the stock as a buy, while six assigned buy or strong buy ratings. The remaining three have underperform ratings