On Tuesday, global oil markets experienced notable fluctuations as investors reacted to mixed signals regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations. Brent crude oil prices rose by 2.5% to $98.47 per barrel, while WTI prices fell, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation.
Analysts, including Dave Ernsberger from S&P Global Energy, highlighted fears that Iran might impose a transit fee on vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz as part of a peace agreement with the U.S. This potential fee, speculated to be around $1 per barrel, raises concerns about the principle of free maritime navigation and could set a precedent for future trade costs.
The Strait is crucial for global oil supply, with about 20% of seaborne oil passing through it. Despite some vessels still moving through the Strait, traffic is significantly reduced, with only about 10% of pre-war levels.
Experts suggest that even if a deal is reached, it may take up to a year for oil supply and shipping traffic to stabilize, further contributing to market volatility and uncertainty in oil pricing