Brazil has increasingly captured China's soybean market, with over 60% of imports coming from Brazil compared to just 23% from the U.S. as of early 2026. U.S. soybean exports to China fell dramatically by 76% last year, totaling $3.1 billion, down from a peak of $17.9 billion in 2022. At a recent expo in Beijing, U.S.
Soybean Export Council executives emphasized the differences in crop quality due to varying weather conditions, urging Chinese buyers to educate themselves on these factors. Despite a commitment from China to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural goods annually through 2028, including 25 million metric tons of soybeans, the recovery of U.S. soybean exports is expected to be gradual.
Current projections suggest export volumes will stabilize around 25 to 30 million metric tons over the next couple of years, with potential growth toward 40 million metric tons in the future. Recent sales reports indicate a slight uptick in commitments from China, but overall, the U.S. faces challenges in regaining its market position amid ongoing trade dynamics