ASML's CFO Roger Dassen indicated that despite a decline in sales from China compared to previous years, the country is projected to contribute around 20% of ASML's revenue in 2026. This comes amid rising political tensions and calls from U.S. lawmakers for stricter export controls on chipmaking equipment, which could affect ASML's ability to sell even less advanced machines to China.
In the first half of 2026, ASML generated approximately 2.9 billion euros ($3.3 billion) from Chinese sales, making it the third-largest revenue source for the company, trailing only South Korea and Taiwan.
The demand for ASML's machines in China is primarily driven by the Logic business, catering to domestic demand, and is expected to grow as Chinese semiconductor spending increases by about 10% annually over the next two years. However, the proposed U.S.
MATCH Act could significantly restrict ASML's operations in China, potentially banning sales of DUV lithography machines, which would have a notable impact on ASML's order book. The company's strong global demand, particularly in the AI sector, contrasts with the geopolitical challenges it faces, making its future in the Chinese market uncertain