HSBC's analysis of SpaceX indicates that the company's shares are currently priced at their full value, even after factoring in a premium for Elon Musk's proven ability to innovate and commercialize technology. The firm set a price target of $115, which is below the company's IPO price of $135 and its recent trading level of approximately $118.
HSBC's valuation approach diverges from traditional methods, arguing that they do not adequately capture the value associated with founder-led companies like SpaceX. Instead, they used Tesla's early share price performance as a benchmark for determining the appropriate innovation premium.
The analysis suggests that investors have already accounted for SpaceX's future growth, including its Starlink satellite internet expansion and AI initiatives. HSBC also presented a more optimistic scenario, valuing SpaceX at $293 per share if certain conditions, such as the commercial viability of Starship by 2027 and increased launch capacity, are met