On Friday, Anthropic announced it had disabled access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models following a directive from the U.S. government to restrict access to foreign nationals. This move surprised many in the market, especially since it came shortly after the models were introduced.
Traders on Kalshi are optimistic, assigning a 58% probability that access to Fable 5 will be restored by July 1, and a 74% chance by July 10. The government's order was a response to concerns about national security, as the Department of Defense had previously identified Anthropic as a supply chain risk.
The company's recent meeting with the Trump administration may have influenced trader sentiment, although the outcome of that discussion remains unclear. On another prediction market, Polymarket, traders are even more bullish, estimating a 67% chance of restoration by the start of July.
This situation highlights the ongoing tension between regulatory compliance and the rapid development of AI technologies