During a recent online meeting, OPEC+ confirmed that it would keep oil production targets unchanged for November, aligning with market expectations that no significant policy changes are anticipated until next year.
The core members of OPEC+, which include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are currently producing well below their output quotas due to disruptions caused by the U.S.-Israeli conflict involving Iran.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that despite some increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the overall output remains significantly below target levels, contributing to a tight oil market. Oil prices have seen fluctuations, with Brent crude currently above $100 a barrel, a notable increase from approximately $73 before the conflict began.
The ongoing war has also delayed a crucial review of the group's output capacity, which is essential for determining future production quotas. As of August, the seven core OPEC+ members produced 25 million barrels per day, which is still about 5 million barrels per day less than pre-war levels.
With approximately 2 million barrels per day of output cuts still in effect, any adjustments to production levels are not expected before 2027. The next meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled for November 1, where further discussions on production strategies will take place