On Tuesday, U.S. crude oil futures fell approximately 2% to $89.40, while Brent futures decreased by 1.7% to $92.65 per barrel. President Trump indicated that a deal to resolve the conflict with Iran might be reached within 'two or three days,' which could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, this assertion comes amid escalating violence between Israel and Iran, with missile strikes exchanged recently. Although oil prices briefly spiked due to these tensions, they have since stabilized, partly due to a fragile ceasefire and the pressure from Trump on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to avoid further military actions.
Since the U.S. and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28, oil prices have surged about 30%, driven by significant disruptions in oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen a drastic reduction in traffic.
Analysts from JPMorgan noted that despite the naval blockade and reduced commercial activity, there may still be substantial oil movement through Hormuz, with estimates suggesting around 2 million barrels per day could be leaving on tankers that have turned off their tracking devices.
Looking ahead, analysts warn that oil prices could rise sharply later this year as global inventories dwindle and summer demand peaks, indicating a potential for increased market volatility