Halloween shopping has become more expensive this year, with Americans projected to spend $13.5 billion, up from $13.1 billion last year, according to the National Retail Federation. Inflation has affected prices across the board, including a notable 11% increase in pumpkin prices due to reduced yields from drought conditions in Texas.
Candy prices have also risen, with candy and chewing gum up 7.7% year-over-year as of September, outpacing broader food inflation. Adverse weather conditions have disrupted sugar supply, further complicating the situation for candy manufacturers.
Nielsen IQ data indicates a decline in Halloween candy sales, with chocolate sales particularly vulnerable due to cocoa supply disruptions in West Africa. Despite a recent drop in cocoa prices, this has not yet translated into lower chocolate prices for consumers. Hershey's stock has seen some gains as investors shift towards consumer staples, but analysts are cautious about the company's future.
Hershey has lowered its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to 3%, indicating potential stagnation in the fourth quarter. Analysts have cut their price targets for Hershey, reflecting concerns over consumer pressures and cost challenges.
The trend towards smaller candy packages and value packs suggests that consumers are prioritizing affordability, which could further impact sales for traditional chocolate products