According to Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, Bitcoin's price volatility has reached historic lows, with recent price swings being among the smallest recorded. This calm period often precedes larger price movements, with historical data indicating a median absolute move of approximately 30% over the following 60 days.
However, Farrell emphasizes that this does not predict whether Bitcoin's price will rise or fall, as past instances of low volatility have resulted in both gains and losses. Recently, Bitcoin saw a 2% increase after a period of underperformance compared to other cryptocurrencies, but it has still declined nearly 27% year-to-date.
The rise in Bitcoin's price may be attributed to traders closing bearish positions, as indicated by a significant drop in open interest in perpetual futures. Despite the recent rebound, Farrell advises caution, noting that similar price increases earlier this year were not sustained.
He also points out that rising long-term real yields could pose a risk to Bitcoin and other risk assets, potentially triggering a breakout from its current low-volatility state