As 2026 approaches, the excitement surrounding potential IPOs from major private companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI has diminished. OpenAI has confirmed it will not go public this year, leading to a reassessment of the IPO landscape.
Currently, Anthropic is the only company with a strong likelihood of announcing an IPO, with traders on Kalshi assigning it a 75% chance of doing so after it filed a prospectus with the SEC. In contrast, other companies such as Plaid and Deel have seen their IPO prospects drastically reduced, with Plaid's chances dropping from 50% to just 10%, and Deel's from 50% to 3%.
Databricks and OpenAI also face bleak odds, at 1% and 3% respectively. Despite a rise in IPO proceeds this year, largely due to SpaceX's debut, the total number of U.S. IPOs has decreased by 33% compared to 2025.
The market's optimism for AI companies transitioning to public markets is being challenged by Anthropic's recent revenue report, which showed weaker growth than expected, prompting analysts to question the sustainability of its projected valuation.
This uncertainty is contributing to a broader decline in AI-related equities, as investors reassess growth assumptions in light of pricing pressures and revenue deceleration