President Donald Trump is facing heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly with Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatening to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Israel does not cease its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Bab el-Mandeb is a critical trade route that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and its closure would severely disrupt oil supplies, especially as exports through the Strait of Hormuz have already been affected by Iranian attacks on shipping.
In April, oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb nearly doubled to 7.2 million barrels per day, helping to mitigate supply losses to major economies like Japan and South Korea. However, analysts warn that if Iran follows through on its threats, it could lead to a significant escalation in the conflict and further impact oil prices.
U.S. crude oil prices spiked 8% following the threats but saw a pullback after a ceasefire agreement was discussed, although its implementation remains uncertain. The situation is precarious, with the potential for increased military action from the U.S. and retaliatory measures from Iran, which could include targeting the Bab el-Mandeb.
The Houthis in Yemen, aligned with Iran, have previously attacked commercial shipping in the region, and their involvement could further threaten the flow of oil through this vital chokepoint