The Social Security Administration's upcoming COLA for 2027 is projected to be between 3.4% and 3.6%, according to new estimates based on July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Mary Johnson, an independent analyst, noted that her previous estimate of 3.7% has been adjusted down from a higher forecast earlier this year, reflecting a trend of moderating inflation.
The long-term average for COLA adjustments is around 2.6%, while the past decade has seen an average of 3.1%. Notably, the COLA was significantly higher in 2022 and 2023, at 5.9% and 8.7% respectively, due to spikes in inflation. The Senior Citizens League has also revised its estimate for the 2027 COLA to 3.6%, down from earlier predictions of 3.8%.
The COLA is calculated based on the CPI-W, which rose 3.4% over the last year. These estimates are preliminary and will be finalized in October, depending on inflation trends in the coming months