Traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are showing increased confidence in Democratic chances to win the Senate, with probabilities of 54% and 59% respectively. This shift comes as Republicans defend a majority in the Senate, holding 20 of the 33 contested seats.
The Democrats' path to control involves flipping states that Trump won by significant margins, such as Alaska, Texas, and Ohio. The odds for Democrats improved notably after the U.S.-Iran conflict began, which initially boosted Republican prospects due to rising gas prices.
However, as oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel and gasoline prices have exceeded $4 nationally, the political landscape has shifted again, negatively impacting Republican approval ratings. Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena University survey, shows Democrats leading by nearly 9 percentage points among likely voters in congressional districts.
This evolving situation underscores the potential volatility in the upcoming elections and the influence of economic factors on voter sentiment