Prediction market traders are currently forecasting a robust jobs report for September, following a surprising increase of 162,000 jobs in August. On the Kalshi platform, there is a 60% probability that more than 90,000 jobs were added in September, with nearly equal odds suggesting the report could exceed 100,000 jobs. This expectation surpasses the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 84,000 jobs.
Similarly, traders on Polymarket also see about a 50% chance that the report will reflect job growth in the six-figure range. The upcoming employment report, set to be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m., is significant as it follows a summer period where the labor market showed signs of weakness.
The strong August report has provided the Federal Reserve with justification to prioritize its inflation targets, which remain above desired levels, potentially leading to further interest rate hikes. Additionally, the ADP national employment report will be published on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, which may offer further insights ahead of the official jobs report