Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi currently estimate a 74% likelihood that Paramount will successfully acquire Warner Bros. Discovery by July 2027, although this figure has decreased from over 80% prior to a lawsuit filed by California and 11 other states to block the merger.
Following the lawsuit, the odds dropped to as low as 66% after Paramount announced a delay in the acquisition timeline. On another platform, Polymarket, there is a 23% chance that the acquisition will not succeed by June 30, 2027. The merger's termination date is set for March 4, 2027, which could extend to June 4, 2027, if only regulatory issues remain.
A federal judge has scheduled a trial for March 2027 regarding the states' lawsuit, and Paramount has stated it will not finalize the acquisition until the court resolves the claims or until June 1, 2027, whichever comes first.
If the deal does not close by September 30, Paramount will incur a penalty of 25 cents per share per quarter to Warner Bros. shareholders until the transaction is completed.
Additionally, the Directors Guild of America and the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees have urged both the California Attorney General and Paramount's CEO to negotiate a resolution or expedite the trial to reduce uncertainty surrounding the merger