According to a note from Piper Sandler, Robinhood is poised for a substantial increase in its prediction market revenue with the onset of the football season. Analyst Patrick Moley highlighted that the recent World Cup generated explosive volume growth in prediction markets, which bodes well for the upcoming NFL and NCAA football seasons.
He noted that Robinhood's joint venture, Rothera, has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer football contracts, further enhancing its market position.
As a result, Moley raised his earnings per share estimates for Robinhood by 5% and 7% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, and increased his price target from $135 to $145, indicating a potential upside of about 35% from the stock's recent close. Additionally, he maintained an overweight rating on the stock.
Notably, since June, approximately 23% of prediction market volume has shifted from Kalshi to Rothera, reflecting Robinhood's growing influence in this space. Despite football's historical dominance on Kalshi, Moley does not expect it to be the primary driver of volume this season, as the platform diversifies its offerings.
Overall, Piper Sandler projects that Robinhood users will trade around 29.7 billion event contracts and generate approximately $320 million in revenue from September to December, which translates to an annualized figure of $960 million