The New York Times reported that OpenAI, led by CEO Sam Altman, is likely delaying its IPO, which was initially expected in 2026. This change in outlook comes as OpenAI's advisers reassess the market following SpaceX's IPO, which experienced a significant initial rally followed by a decline, raising concerns about retail investor interest.
Currently, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi estimate a 59% probability that OpenAI will announce its IPO by March 1, 2027, with a 73% chance of an announcement by June 2027. In contrast, there is only a one-in-three chance that the IPO will be announced before January 1, 2027.
Kalshi defines an IPO as confirmed if the Securities and Exchange Commission declares the company's S-1 form effective, if an official price is set, or if a trading ticker is assigned. Meanwhile, OpenAI's competitor, Anthropic, has also filed for an IPO, with traders estimating a 70% chance of its announcement by December 2026