Morgan Stanley has upgraded its forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments for the second time this year, now expecting 50,000 units to ship in 2026, nearly double its previous estimate of 28,000. This follows an earlier increase from an initial projection of 14,000 units.
The bank estimates that the market will reach $2 billion this year and grow to $15 billion by 2030, with annual shipments projected to hit 446,000 units by then. The forecast focuses on external sales, excluding prototypes and internal use. Analyst Sheng Zhong noted that factors such as commercial verification, policy support, and supply-chain feedback are accelerating humanoid adoption in China.
The country is rapidly advancing in the robotics sector, with numerous domestic manufacturers scaling production for real-world applications in factories and retail. The Chinese government is prioritizing the development of 'embodied AI' and is providing support to startups through subsidies and favorable lending terms.
Last year, global humanoid shipments totaled about 13,000, with Chinese firms dominating the market. Morgan Stanley identified Shanghai-listed Leaderdrive as a key beneficiary of this growth, raising its target price from 269 yuan to 464 yuan, as the company is expected to capture a significant share of the global market.
However, geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties pose challenges for Chinese robotics firms, which are increasingly looking to diversify their markets. As the competition in AI and robotics intensifies, experts suggest that investors should closely monitor developments in this rapidly evolving sector