OpenAI's proposal to offer the U.S. government a 5% stake has raised interest, but Kalshi traders assign low odds to the likelihood of this deal materializing, reflecting broader uncertainty in the market. The traders believe there is less than a 30% chance that the government will invest in OpenAI or Anthropic this year.
In contrast, they see a greater than 60% probability that the government will take stakes in quantum computing companies like Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, as well as semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries. This follows the U.S. Commerce Department's announcement of $2 billion in grants for quantum computing firms, indicating a strategic focus on this sector.
Additionally, there are discussions about potential equity stakes in private-sector drone companies, with varying odds for each. The overall sentiment suggests that while there is interest in government investments in technology, the specific case of OpenAI remains uncertain