Goldman Sachs has raised its December price forecast for Brent crude to $105 per barrel from $90, and for WTI crude to $94 per barrel. The bank's 2027 average forecasts have also been adjusted, with Brent now expected to average $88 per barrel, up from $80, and WTI at $78, up from $73.
The adjustments are driven by the increased risk of supply disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have led markets to price in a higher risk premium. Goldman noted that the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, along with broader geopolitical fragmentation, contribute to this uncertainty, making it challenging to predict the timing and location of potential disruptions.
As a result, their base case now includes an allowance for a 1 million barrels per day global supply disruption in 2027