Goldman Sachs, led by strategist Kamakshya Trivedi, has observed that recent U.S. interventions in the yen and Treasury markets reflect a preference for supporting other assets, even at the expense of the dollar. This unconventional approach raises the possibility of more extreme measures if fiscal and monetary tightening is avoided.
The firm noted that carry strategies are on track for their best performance since 2010, showing resilience despite recent yen interventions and a U.S. Treasury buyback announcement. Goldman also highlighted that global economic conditions are favorable for continued carry performance.
Additionally, the firm pointed out that Europe may face renewed scrutiny due to geopolitical tensions and energy prices, particularly as traders prepare for gas storage challenges. Although the EUR/USD has retraced some recent gains, there remains a positive outlook in options pricing that could be tested if gas flows are restricted