According to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, total retail spending in October reached $561.7 billion, marking a modest 0.2% increase from September and a 3.6% rise year-over-year. However, this growth rate is the slowest recorded since November 2025, suggesting that consumers are becoming more selective with their purchases amid ongoing inflationary pressures.
Core retail spending, which excludes restaurants, rose by 0.3% month-over-month to $454.2 billion, reflecting a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year. The National Retail Federation (NRF) noted that a strong Halloween season and early holiday promotions helped bolster these figures.
Matthew Shay, CEO of the NRF, emphasized that households are carefully managing their budgets and timing purchases around sales to maximize their spending power. The data indicates that while spending increased in nine out of eleven sectors year-over-year, categories such as furniture and home furnishings saw a decline, likely due to the impact of rising mortgage rates on the housing market.
Additionally, the report highlights that inflation remains a pressing concern for consumers, as evidenced by a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index for October.
This economic context is crucial, especially as inflation and cost of living were significant issues in the recent midterm elections, potentially influencing future consumer behavior and retail strategies