In the second quarter, Bitcoin prices experienced a decline of about 12%, which has negatively impacted trading volumes on Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency trading platform. Analysts expect Coinbase to report a trading volume below $200 billion for the first time since the third quarter of 2024, with a consensus estimate of $168.5 billion according to FactSet.
Traders on Kalshi assign a 41% probability that trading volume will exceed $160 billion and only a 25% chance it will surpass $170 billion. However, there is a strong belief, at 99%, that trading volume will remain above $150 billion. This anticipated decline in trading volume follows a trend seen in previous quarters, where Coinbase's trading volumes fell in tandem with Bitcoin price drops.
Since Bitcoin's peak in October 2025, Coinbase's shares have plummeted over 55%, indicating significant investor concern regarding the company's performance amid a challenging market environment. Coinbase is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings report on July 30, which will provide further insights into its financial health and market position