In October, China's exports rose by 35.2% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 33.5%, although this was a slight slowdown from September's 36.3% growth. Imports surged even more, climbing 41.6%, well above the anticipated 32% increase.
Despite this robust performance, the trade surplus fell to $105.3 billion, the lowest since April, and down from a record $1.2 trillion for the full year 2025.
This decline in surplus has prompted calls from trading partners for China to stimulate domestic demand to balance its economy, which has been characterized by weak household consumption, as evidenced by a mere 1.1% growth in retail sales in September.
The export growth is largely driven by strong demand for chips and AI-related hardware, but analysts warn that a slowdown in global AI development could negatively impact Chinese exporters. Additionally, a survey from China Beige Book indicated a slowdown in new domestic and export orders, and factory activity unexpectedly contracted, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the economy.
On the trade front, recent agreements between Washington and Beijing, as well as the EU's new import limits on Chinese hybrid vehicles, may not significantly curb China's export growth, according to experts. The upcoming meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump at the APEC summit could further influence trade dynamics